Climate Risk Analysis — Future Scenarios

Current vs Future Climate Risk
by Region

Region-by-region comparison of current climate risk against projected future scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, Future) across all UK regions in the Client portfolio.

Total Properties3,009
England2,559
Scotland60
Wales389
Northern Ireland1
Generated23 Apr 2026
01 — Executive Summary
Regional Overview
Total EAL development across flood hazards per region.
England
2,559 properties
Current EAL: £72.6k
Future EAL: £109.9k
▲ +51.4%
Scotland
60 properties
Current EAL: £810
Future EAL: £469
▼ -42.1%
Wales
389 properties
Current EAL: £9.0k
Future EAL: £3.4k
▼ -61.8%
Northern Ireland
1 properties
Current EAL: £0
Future EAL: £0
N/A
Report Scope — Hazard Coverage
Availability of current vs future scenario comparison by hazard type.
Hazard Current Risk Future Scenario Status
Coastal Flood ✓ Available ✓ Available Included
River Flood ✓ Available ✓ Available Included
Surface Flood ✓ Available ✓ Available Included
Storm ✓ Available ✗ Not available Excluded
Subsidence ✓ Available ✗ Not available Excluded
All Regions at a Glance
Comparison of current vs future EAL and high-risk property counts across regions.
Region Properties Current EAL Future EAL Change High Risk (Current) High Risk (Future)
England 2,559 £72.6k £109.9k ▲ +51.4% 143 218
Scotland 60 £810 £469 ▼ -42.1% 12 0
Wales 389 £9.0k £3.4k ▼ -61.8% 14 1
Northern Ireland 1 £0 £0 N/A 0 0
02 — Region-by-Region Analysis
Detailed Current vs Future Comparison
Each region below shows a per-hazard breakdown of risk distribution and EAL under current and projected future climate scenarios.
England 2,559 properties
Coastal & River Flood
Current vs RCP 8.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current28 (1.1%)12 (0.5%)141 (5.5%)2,378 (92.9%)£31.3k£0.2157
RCP 8.554 (2.1%)16 (0.6%)133 (5.2%)2,356 (92.1%)£44.8k£0.2932
EAL change: ▲ +43.1% EAL/m² change: ▲ +36.0%
Surface Flood
Current vs RCP 8.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current115 (4.5%)74 (2.9%)224 (8.8%)2,146 (83.9%)£41.2k£0.2075
RCP 8.5164 (6.4%)113 (4.4%)265 (10.4%)2,017 (78.8%)£65.1k£0.3184
EAL change: ▲ +57.8% EAL/m² change: ▲ +53.5%
Region Total EAL
Current Total
£72.6k
Future Total
£109.9k
Change
▲ +51.4%
Scotland 60 properties
Coastal Flood
Current vs Future
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current1 (1.7%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)59 (98.3%)£205£0.0571
Future0 (0.0%)1 (1.7%)0 (0.0%)59 (98.3%)£3£0.0006
EAL change: ▼ -98.5% EAL/m² change: ▼ -98.9%
River Flood
Current vs Future
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current1 (1.7%)1 (1.7%)1 (1.7%)57 (95.0%)£19£0.0042
Future0 (0.0%)3 (5.0%)0 (0.0%)57 (95.0%)£167£0.0517
EAL change: ▲ +798.0% EAL/m² change: ▲ +1126.1%
Surface Flood
Current vs Future
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current10 (16.7%)14 (23.3%)6 (10.0%)30 (50.0%)£586£0.1635
Future0 (0.0%)17 (28.3%)0 (0.0%)43 (71.7%)£299£0.0713
EAL change: ▼ -49.0% EAL/m² change: ▼ -56.4%
Region Total EAL
Current Total
£810
Future Total
£469
Change
▼ -42.1%
Wales 389 properties
Coastal Flood
Current vs RCP 4.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)54 (13.9%)335 (86.1%)£2.6k£0.1307
RCP 4.50 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)389 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
EAL change: ▼ -100.0% EAL/m² change: ▼ -100.0%
River Flood
Current vs RCP 4.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current5 (1.3%)0 (0.0%)36 (9.3%)348 (89.5%)£6.1k£0.2708
RCP 4.51 (0.3%)4 (1.0%)0 (0.0%)384 (98.7%)£2.5k£0.0301
EAL change: ▼ -59.0% EAL/m² change: ▼ -88.9%
Surface Flood
Current vs RCP 4.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current9 (2.3%)7 (1.8%)20 (5.1%)353 (90.7%)£345£0.0164
RCP 4.50 (0.0%)8 (2.1%)0 (0.0%)381 (97.9%)£936£0.0486
EAL change: ▲ +171.0% EAL/m² change: ▲ +196.2%
Region Total EAL
Current Total
£9.0k
Future Total
£3.4k
Change
▼ -61.8%
Northern Ireland 1 properties
Coastal Flood
Current vs RCP 8.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
RCP 8.50 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
EAL change: N/A EAL/m² change: N/A
River Flood
Current vs RCP 8.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
RCP 8.50 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
EAL change: N/A EAL/m² change: N/A
Surface Flood
Current vs RCP 8.5
Scenario High risk Medium risk Low / Very low No risk Total EAL Avg EAL / m²
Current0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
RCP 8.50 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)0 (0.0%)1 (100.0%)£0£0.0000
EAL change: N/A EAL/m² change: N/A
Region Total EAL
Current Total
£0
Future Total
£0
Change
N/A
07 — Geographic Distribution of EAL/m² Change
Where is Risk Increasing or Decreasing?
Location-level view of how total flood EAL per m² changes between current and future scenarios. Use the filters below to show/hide change bands and portfolios.
EAL/m² change
Absolute increase or decrease in EAL per m² from current to future scenario
< -£5
-£5 to -£1
-£1 to £0
£0 to +£1
+£1 to +£5
> +£5
% Change
Relative change in EAL per m² compared to the current scenario baseline
< -50%
-50 to -20%
-20 to 0%
0 to +20%
+20 to +50%
> +50%
New risk
Portfolio
All portfolios (6) ▼
Select all Clear
Methodology
Current risk levels and Expected Annual Loss (EAL) are based on present-day climate conditions. Future scenarios represent projected climate change impacts: RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions pathway), RCP 8.5 (high emissions pathway), and Future (scenario-specific projections). Different regions use different future scenarios based on data availability. EAL/m² averages exclude properties with floor area > 500 m² (outlier threshold). Storm and Subsidence are excluded from this report as no reliable future scenario data is available for these hazards — only current risk evaluation exists.